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P1
Attribution is a probability distribution.
A crypto customer sees an ad on her phone, signs up a week later on a laptop, clears KYC three days after that and funds from her banking app. No click path survives that journey, and since the mobile privacy changes most of it is invisible anyway. I treat channel credit as a range: MMP data, holdout tests and media-mix models triangulated, with the uncertainty reported next to the number.
- What would change my mind
- A privacy-safe, cross-device identifier becomes standard on both major mobile platforms.
Confidence85%
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P2
In emerging markets, distribution beats acquisition.
Clicks are cheap in Lagos, Nairobi and Lusaka. Funded, retained accounts are not. Whoever already owns the customer relationship and the payment rail (mobile money operators, banks, merchant networks) carries trust that paid media cannot buy. The best growth plan in these markets often looks more like a partnership strategy than a media plan.
- What would change my mind
- Paid-acquired cohorts in African markets match partner-sourced cohorts on twelve-month retention and payback, at scale.
Confidence75%
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P3
Crypto demand follows liquidity, so read campaigns against the market.
Signups, deposits and volume move with the market far more than with any campaign. Bitcoin still trades as a macro asset alongside real yields, the dollar and ETF flows. I plan spend against that backdrop: lean in as liquidity improves, protect retention when it tightens, and never read a bull-market CPA as a channel win.
- What would change my mind
- Bitcoin's relationship with real yields and global liquidity breaks down for a full cycle.
Confidence70%
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P4
Bad data fails before bad marketing does.
Most of the "this channel stopped working" debates I have investigated ended in the event pipeline: a redirect that fires a second page view, an SDK that double-counts installs, a consent setting that quietly drops a market. Audit the instrumentation before you judge the channel. It is slower and less fun, and it is usually where the answer is.
- What would change my mind
- I audit a mature marketing data stack and find it clean. It has not happened yet.
Confidence90%
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P5
Scenarios beat forecasts.
A single forecast in crypto gets anchored on, then embarrassed. I work in conditional branches instead: two to four scenarios, each with its assumptions written down and a set of observable tells that show which branch we are actually in. When a tell fires, the plan changes. More on how this works.
- What would change my mind
- Point forecasts consistently lead to better decisions than scenario planning on the same questions.
Confidence80%
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P6
Trust is the product, and it is always under attack.
Exchange brands get cloned, impersonated in ads and buried under spam SEO. Users cannot tell the difference, so every scam spends the real brand's trust. Competitive intelligence in crypto has to watch bad actors as closely as competitors, and the response is part marketing, part security work.
- What would change my mind
- Ad platforms and search engines bring brand impersonation under durable control.
Confidence70%